Free Grand National Tips 2009

Our Grand National Tip to Win!

31		Rambling Minster	8/1		FREE Grand National Bets Guide
Offers Keith Reveley (trainer) and son James (jockey) the opportunity to pull off a great family act. Sound jumper (has never fallen) and stays well, as he showed when scooping the Blue Square Gold Cup at Haydock in February. Escapes a penalty for that success and his previous exploits include winning the four-mile Scottish Borders National at Kelso last season. Other bonuses are that he is running from the right end of the weights and that he seems effective on any ground.

Each Way Tip

14		Big Fella Thanks	20/1		FREE Grand National Bets Guide
There has been quite an ante-post plunge on this novice, named after the greyhound who won the 1999 Coursing Derby at Clonmel. There is nothing skinny or quick about the equine version, who enjoyed an emphatic success in the Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster in January followed by a staying-on third in the Racing Post Chase at Kempton. On the minus side, he is a horse of limited experience who has shown a touch of waywardness, being tried in blinkers on one occasion.

John Smiths Grand National - 16; 15, Aintree, Saturday 4 April

It’s that time of year again, the magical spectacle that is the Grand National. 4miles 4 furlongs, 39 rivals and 30 colossus fences to master, in the race that brings the nation to a halt.

This years renewal look’s wide open – therefore to help us try and find a winner, let’s look at some of the trends & statistics from previous years.
The First thing I always look for when searching for a National winner is the Top 8 in the betting.  This isn’t the lottery that most people tend to associate the race with, and 14 of the last 18 winners have come from the Top 8 in the betting. Secondly, I tend to look at the weights to be carried.  You cannot ignore the fact that the only horse to carry more than 11st 6lbs to victory in the last 50years is the legendary Red Rum.  More recently, only Hedgehunter has won carrying more than 11stone since 1983.  This year’s renewal does look to have a bit more class about it, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see one of the top weights running a big race, but you can’t argue with those stats, and I would be thinking twice before putting my hard-earned on anything carrying more than 11st 5lbs.
I do like experienced horses in this race – the race is so unique, it often catches inexperienced novices out on their debuts. Due to this, I tend to look straight past horses aged seven or younger. Novices really do have a terrible record even completely the course, let alone troubling the judge – so they should be dismissed straight away. 
I often look for my selection to have experience over the national fences also – either in the race previously, or the Beecher chase. Time after time course form stands up in the National.

Taking all that into consideration, let’s look at some of the market leaders and live outsiders, and finally make some betting recommendations for this year’s renewal.

My Will - one for huge support since his encouraging run in the Gold Cup, but one id be keen to take on. Ruby is on-board so clearly will warrant further support, but I can’t have him as most likely winner. Carrying11st 4lb, and more importantly lack of experience jumping the national fences are a worry for me. His jumping isn’t as rock solid as I would want for a national favourite, and was staying on past tired horses in the Gold Cup. Expect a big-run, will trade lower in-running, but not one I can have with too much confidence.

Butlers Cabin- Iexpect this one to be battling for favouritism on the day. Possibly an unlucky loser when carried out previously, everything is in place to suggest another big run, with the champion jockeys services booked.  Fills the criteria I look for National Winners and will one to stay on the right side of. Nice racing weight.

Rambling Minster – A lot of shrewd judges seem to be putting this one up after his superb performance last time out at Haydock. Possibly would have fancied him if the ground had come up on the soft-side, and looks like he has shown his cards in terms of the handicapper. One I can see drifting on the day, possibly running a big race without winning.

State of Play – A contender I’m very interested in. Trainer Evan Williams has found the key to training him, keeping him Fresh – and if he puts up a similar performance to when winning the Hennessy at Newbury back in November 06, I think he will go very close. Some have questioned his size for the national fences, but he is a very solid jumper who travels well.  Expecting a big performance.

Parson Legacy – Been the subject of support in the last week, and you can understand why. Coming from the Minehead yard of Phillip Hobbs, he is another best fresh and will appreciate the good ground at Aintree.  A very good jumper who could still be open to improvement at the age of 11. Not to be dismissed lightly.

Black Apalachi – One that I would have had top of my list if the ground had come up a bog. Absolutely loves the heavy ground and couldn’t have been more impressive when winning the Beecher Chase here by 74lengths back in November. Possibly has shown his cards now, up 15lbs from that run. My just be found out by the quicker surface.

Comply or Die – Last year’s winner-one of the easiest winners I’ve ever seen of this race. Satisfactory performance at Cheltenham last time out, where his jumping was impeccable. Another I can see being backed on the day, but with 18lb more on his back may just fall short to an improving sort. Again, another I wouldn’t put you off backing him EW.

Hear the Echo – Another that has been the subject of support since trainer Mouse Morris pulled out former Gold Cup hero War of Attrition from the race.  Winner of the Irish Grand National back in March 08, clearly has to be respected. The trainer has a proven track record in getting one spot on for the big day, but just worries me that the horse has never travelled out of his native Ireland, and may just lack the experience of others.

Others to consider –
L’Ami is a rather big price for those of you who like to look for something at outside the market leaders. Ran a huge race at Cheltenham last time out, and is one of the class acts in the field. A horse that ran 4th in a Cheltenham Gold Cup, if he has left the Cheltenham run behind him, must have serious each way claims.
Kilbeggan Blade is another that looks a touch of value to me. A grand looking horse, trained by the impressive Tom George. An improving ten year old who gets in off a lovely racing weight of 10’ 7lbs. Been trained specifically with this race in mind, the trip should be no problem as he showed major battling qualities when defending his National Chase crown at Sandown in December. Course experience is something that slightly worries me, but his jumping has never been an issue, and I could see him running a big race.

Betting Recommendations –
 
From the Market Leaders I’m very sweet on State of Play (14/1 Ladbrokes) and also Butlers Cabin (8/1 Stan James).  Id be keen to take My Will and Rambling Minster on, as feel both are plenty short enough in the market. Keep an eye on My Will and Comply or die in-running, as both could trade pretty short when travelling well.
Both L’Ami (25/1 Paddy Power) and Kilbeggan Blade (25/1 Totesport) offer excellent EW value.